The Truth About Side Hustles: Success is a Probability Game—100 Attempts as Your Entry Ticket

Before achieving success in something, no one can be certain it will work out. This is the lesson I've learned after building side hustles, managing self-media accounts, launching multiple platforms, and experimenting with various niches and approaches.

01/ Without 100 Attempts, Don't Discuss Success Rates

Every time I start a new account, post a new video, write an article, or launch a project, I initially feel confident—convinced this time will be different. After all, I have previous experience and new knowledge.

But once you actually start working, you realize reality differs completely from expectations, and new problems always emerge.

Even the most skilled individuals can't guarantee a project's success. In most cases, people use volume to increase probability.

For example, if a video has only a 10% or even 1% chance to go viral or generate sales, you post 100 videos. If an account has a 30% or 20% success rate, you create 100 accounts.

This is the common approach. All methodologies simply improve success probability—and with probability, nothing is 100% guaranteed.

If something has a success rate above 50%, that's extremely high. With multiple attempts—two, three, ten times—success becomes likely.

But in reality, success rates are usually below 30%, sometimes only 10-20%.

If your account hasn't generated income or traffic after 10, 20, or even 100 posts, don't get discouraged—this is normal.

It's also normal if you haven't made money after one account, two accounts, or even several projects. You might need to try 10 or 20 accounts before finding success.

This doesn't mean you should just post content mindlessly without iteration or methodology. Volume is the foundation, but without this foundation, success becomes nearly impossible.

02/ Effort is Just the Prerequisite, Not the Result

In today's world, simply claiming "I work hard" isn't enough. Effort is necessary but not sufficient for success—though success certainly can't happen without it.

I remember when I was creating short videos, seeing others find sudden success in certain niches made me envious. My own direction wasn't yielding results, so I quickly registered new accounts and changed my positioning.

Did it work? Usually not. Changing direction doesn't guarantee success.

03/ Persist or Pivot? No One Can Decide for You

I've tried posting 5, 10, 20, or 30 videos in new directions with no better results or traffic.

I've done this multiple times—seeing others succeed and following their path. Sometimes it worked, but most often it didn't.

Is this approach wrong? It's hard to say. Pivoting might lead to success, and persistence might too—but either could also lead to continued failure.

Before success arrives, no one can predict outcomes, judge your choices, or decide whether you should persist or pivot.

04/ Methodology + Direction + Investment = Higher Probability

Everything seems obvious in hindsight, but one thing is certain: correct direction, appropriate methodology, and consistent focused investment dramatically increase success probability.

So what constitutes a correct direction? In my view, it's a path where others have succeeded, it's currently trending, and numerous success cases prove its viability—not a dead end but a feasible route.

Proper methodology matters too—when someone has achieved success using specific methods and summarized patterns, or when you've developed your own effective, replicable system.

Finally, consistent focused investment is critical. Time is limited, and your results largely depend on the time invested.

More investment means more actions and greater success likelihood—this is predictable. The challenge lies in the significant effort required for sustained investment.

Daily time investment might range from 2 to 5-6 hours, with duration varying based on task difficulty and goals.

Simple tasks might take 1-2 months, while complex projects could require 6 months, a year, or longer.

When exploring a new field, set "100 attempts or 100 tasks" as your initial goal. Complete this quantity before deciding whether to continue.

With too few attempts, accurate judgment becomes difficult—unless you're highly experienced and can evaluate viability within the first 10-20 attempts.

Sometimes this happens: you try something one year, abandon it for two years, then restart in the fourth year.

This is common because people's thinking, abilities, and mindsets change with time. What you couldn't do years ago, you might accomplish today—and vice versa.

So stop doubting whether you can succeed. Focus on making it work rather than obsessing over whether it will work.

Daily Reading & Writing by Xiaolu
09/20/2025 [Day 746]