The Truth About Side Hustles: Success Is a Probability Game, and 100 Attempts Are the Ticket In

01/ No 100 Attempts, No Success Rate Talk

Before you actually make something work, there's no way to tell if it'll be a success. This is the lesson I've learned from doing side hustles, running self - media accounts, and trying out different niches and directions.

Every time I start a new account, post a new video, write a new article, or launch a new project, I'm full of confidence at first. I think, “This time, it's definitely going to work,” because I've got some experience and learned new stuff. But once I get into it, I realize the reality is way different from what I imagined, and there are still tons of problems.

Even the most talented people can't guarantee that a project will succeed. Most of the time, it's about using quantity to increase the probability. For example, if there's only a 10% or even 1% chance that a video will go viral or generate sales, then post 100 videos. If the success rate of an account is only 30% or 20%, then create 100 accounts.

Basically, it's all about this approach. All the so - called methods are just to boost the success probability. But as long as it's about probability, it can never be 100%. If something has a success rate of over 50%, that's extremely high. Just try it a few times, two, three, or ten times, and you're likely to succeed.

But in reality, the success rate is usually below 30%, sometimes even only 10% or 20%. If you've posted ten, twenty, or even a hundred posts on an account and haven't made any money or got any traffic, don't be discouraged. It's normal. If you've tried one or two accounts and haven't made money, or one or two projects and they've failed, that's also common. Maybe you need to try the tenth or twentieth account to start making money.

Of course, it's not just about posting content non - stop. You need to iterate and optimize, and use the right methods. Quantity is just the foundation. Without enough attempts, it's really hard to succeed.

02/ Effort Is Just a Prerequisite, Not a Guarantee of Success

In this day and age, you can't just say you're working hard. Effort is just the starting point. Working hard doesn't necessarily lead to success, but you can't succeed without it.

I remember when I was doing short - form videos. I saw someone in a certain niche suddenly become popular. I was so jealous because my own niche was just so - so. I got itchy and quickly registered a new account, changed the niche, and started posting content. Did it work? No, because just changing the direction doesn't guarantee success.

03/ To Persist or to Change? No One Can Decide for You

I've also tried posting five, ten, twenty, or thirty videos in a new direction, but the results were below expectations, and there wasn't much traffic. I've done this several times. Every time I saw someone succeed in something, I'd follow suit. Sometimes I did get results, but most of the time, I didn't.

Is this approach wrong? It's hard to say. Changing the direction might lead to success, and there's definitely a chance. Persisting in the original direction might also work, but there's also a chance of getting nowhere.

Before you succeed, no one can predict the outcome, judge if your choice is right, or decide whether you should persist or change.

04/ Methodology + Direction + Investment = Higher Probability of Success

Most of the time, we evaluate things after the fact. But one thing is for sure: the right direction, the appropriate methodology, and continuous and focused investment can greatly increase the probability of success.

So, what's the right direction? In my opinion, it's a direction where someone has already succeeded, it's the current trend, and there are plenty of successful cases to prove it's viable. It's not a dead - end but a workable path.

The right methodology is also crucial. Someone has achieved success using a certain method and summarized some rules, or you've developed an effective and replicable method on your own.

Finally, continuous and focused investment is key. Time is limited, and how much you can achieve depends largely on how much time you put in. The more you invest and the more actions you take, the greater the chance of success. The hard part is that continuous investment requires a lot of effort.

You might spend anywhere from two hours to five or six hours a day on it, and the duration depends on the difficulty of the task and your goals. Some simple things might only take one or two months, while some projects could last for half a year, a year, or even longer.

When you try a new field, you can start with a goal of “100 attempts, 100 things.” Complete this quantity first, and then decide whether to continue.

When you've made too few attempts, it's hard to make an accurate judgment. Unless you're very experienced and can tell in the first ten or twenty attempts if a direction is suitable for you, or if it's viable and has potential.

Sometimes, you might do something one year, stop for the next two years, and then start again in the fourth year. This is quite common because people's thoughts, abilities, and mindsets change at different stages. Some things you couldn't do a few years ago, you can do now; and things you can't do now, you might be able to do later.

So, don't doubt whether you can succeed. The key is to figure out how to make it happen, rather than worrying about the result.

Daily Reading & Writing by Xiaolu 2025.09.20【day746】